Why
Baluchistan is Epicenter of US-China Cold War
JAVED
RANA
Pakistan's
southwestern Baluchistan province is one of the key epicenters in the
global geo-strategic landscape in ongoing cold war between China and
the US for dominance on the world stage.
The
outcome of an invisible war between two great world powers being
played out through their allies and proxies in Pakistan, may
critically influence global power structure in not so distant future
.
Baluchistan
on Global Geo-Strategic Chessboard
At the heart of external support for insurgency, lies Beijing’s
trillions-dollars global Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI). One of the key strategic
economic corridors of BRI passes through Pakistan’s southwestern
Gawadar port, China built in 2007 in Baluchistan to expand its
massive trade network and political clout to Asia, Africa, Europe and
beyond.
Gawadar
port
is 75
kilometers east of Pakistan's border with Iran and 380 kilometers
northeast of Oman. Its unique location makes it the nearest port to
western China, landlocked Afghanistan, and the Central Asian states
and
Russia.
The
former USSR, before being dismantled into Russia, was desperate to
have access to Gwadar, but it ended up in neighboring Afghanistan
after being defeated by Afghan insurgents in the early 1990s.
The
surrounding sea regions are home to nearly two-thirds of the world's
oil reserves, something
China wants to exploit economically, politically and
geo-strategically in years to come
As
part
of
key component
of BRI, in
2013, China
came
up with $65
billion dollar investment
in
Pakistan better
known as China Pakistan Economic Corridors (CPEC). The
CPEC
involves
the construction of a nearly
3,000-kilometer-long
road, rail, and pipeline network connecting the Gawadar
port
to Kashgar, China's northwest Xinjiang province.
The Gawadar port provides Beijing a vital alternative land and sea
routes for military and trade supplies from Arabian sea to Western
China in the event of a war between China and US-led allies in the
Strait of Malacca and
South China Sea. The US
and its allies in the Western Pacific Ocean have been warning
Beijing of consequences for building artificial islands and military
bases in the South China Sea, which the West perceives as a potential
flash-point for a major conflict in future.
The
former US assistant Defence
Secretary
Chas Freeman believes
that BRI “potentially
is
the
most
transformative engineering effort
in human history” and
once BRI
is
completed, it can generate
a GDP of over $21 trillion by
triggering a
greater trade connectivity with more than half of world’s
population, he
concludes.
The
US GDP is estimated to be over
$27
trillions
dollars
while
China is an
economy
of
more than $18
trillion dollars.
The
China’s GDP is expected
to gradually surpass the size of US economy in not so distant future
if Washington
does not contain BRI’s expanding network in the world and
its strategic choke point is Gawadar port.
Geo-strategically
speaking BRI has a greater
potential to bring an end
to
US led so-called world order which
is already shrinking
because
of emerging trends of countries trading
in their
national
currencies
in different regional blocks,
Washington’s
controversial
trade
war
with Beijing with unrealistic goals
and
White
House’s
unconditional support to Israel’s genocidal
war
in Gaza.
Map
of Terrorism
in
Baluchistan
Pakistan
Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, (PICSS) an
Islamabad based think tank, reports that
in 2024 alone,
there were 40 percent surge in terror
attacks in 905 incidents of terrorism
across Pakistan.
As many as
1969 were
killed including,
527
security personnel and
militants.
In
southwestern, Baluchistan alone, terror attacks have increased to 119
percent in 2024 from year 2023.
Tehreek
Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and self claimed Islamic State’s militants
have their footprint in Baluchistan but they are no match to the
scale of terrorist incidents carried out by the Baluch separatist
outfits in the southwestern province over the years. TTP’s has
also been blamed for attacks on Chines citizens but terror group’s
main faction denies the charge.
Among
the major separatist
terror
groups operating
in Baluchistan are
Baluch Liberation Army (BLA),
its
core
wing---
Majeed Bridge and
Baluchistan
Liberation Front (
BLF).
They
together with other terror groups killed as many as 404 people in as
many as 293 terror attacks in 2024 alone in Baluchistan. Their
killing spree largely includes security personnel and common people
with the ethnic background from country’s biggest populated
province of Punjab.
Based on these statistic, The
Global Terrorism Index’s report released in March 2025,
ranked Pakistan as the second country, the most hit hard by
terrorism--only after Burkina Faso.
On
March 11 2025,
BLA drew global attention after it
hijacked a
train
with 427
passengers including dozens of military personnel who
were traveling in
their
civilian dress. In 36 hours long military operation, the army claimed
to have eliminated as many as 33 terrorists who killed over two
dozens including security personnel and civilians--- most of whom
were ethnically
from
Punjab,
a
province
with
57
percent population in a 241
million Muslim
nuclear
armed state.
Rest
of the passengers
were
either
rescued
or
they managed to flee away from the train.
Who are Allies of China & US in
Baluchistan ?
Pakistan
successfully quelled
four separatist insurgency, last of which was between 1972 to
1977 in Baluchistan when largely regional countries such as India and
Afghanistan were supporting insurgent groups. After over 30 years
long peaceful hiatus in the southwestern region, the separatist
insurgency raised its head again in 2004 following the US-led NATO
occupation of Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Taliban government
in early 2002.
During
their 20-year occupation, which ended in a disgraceful
exit in 2021, Americans allegedly gave a greater foothold to
Islamabad's arch-nemesis, India, in Afghanistan which shares a
2,600-kilometer-long, porous border with Pakistan's northwestern
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern Baluchistan provinces.
Since
then, 1,000s
of people including 19 Chinese engineers, teachers and other citizens
have been killed in insurgent attacks in Pakistan. Islamabad
accused India to had established a large espionage network in
Afghanistan after 9/11 to sponsor terrorism in Baluchistan by
exploiting indigenous fault-lines in the province.
Over
21 years long fifth round of secessionist insurgency, has now gained
momentum. Going by statistics this time around, the insurgency is far
more aggressive mode than any time in the history of the province.
And the reason is an alleged backing of US through India, a clear
hints of which Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif dropped in
his interview
with CNA “ There are powers within our
geographical vicinity and beyond our geographical vicinity who do
like the presence of our Chinese friend. They want to Chinese
investment and cooperation with Pakistan”.
BLA
considers China as colonial power
which is
part of the problem for helping Pakistan
to “ steal” their rich mineral
resources with
least infrastructure development in Baluchistan.
They argue Baluchistan lags far behind
the other
three provinces particularly that of Punjab. Hence,
they demand a separate homeland
Why
Chinese Companies are Downsizing in Pakistan
Pakistan does not want to join any major global power block and has
been scrambling failingly to strike balance in its relations with US
and the China. The US through its policies, alleged covert operations
and under-hand dealing with country’s military Generals who
virtually run Pakistan, has turned out to be a disruptive and
deceptive partner unlike China.
The successive governments particularly incumbent regime in Islamabad
installed by army Generals through alleged bogus
electoral results in February 2023, has been at the center of
allegations to have been slowing
down the pace of CEPC projects after surge in terrorist attacks
on Chinese citizens. There have been 10
terrorist attacks against Chinese citizens from 2018 to 2024. As
many as 19 Chinese citizens including its engineers working on major
CPEC projects have been killed. Many of the attacks were foiled
including the one on Chinese ambassador. Behind the scene China seems
now very frustrated with Pakistan and Chinese
companies are downsizing their staff and sending them back to
their home country over growing sense of insecurity among them.
However, Beijing is unlikely to wind up CPEC from Pakistan given its
appetite for global dominance through BRI network, the strategic hub
of which anchor through Gawadar port.
How
Pakistan is Reinforcing Failure in Baluchistan
The
army has ruled Pakistan for more than half of its history through
at least five coupes by army
Generals. When
not in power directly, the
army indirectly governed
behind the scene by
allegedly breaching
the constitutional dictates and installing
handpicked civilian governments
through farcically rigged
general elections held
one after the other over the course of decades.
However, during last general
elections held in February
2023, the men-in-military uniforms
and its secret agents allegedly
resorted to use of force and
occupied poll stations. They
compelled polling staff to
prepare bogus
elections results and deprived Imran
Khan, the mainstream jailed
Opposition leader Imran Khan
to form the federal
government. His party had
won with two third majority
vote in the Federal
Parliament. There
was similar situation in Baluchistan where nationalist parties were
disallowed to form the
provincial government. Since
then, there has been lingering political
crises across Pakistan.
The
vicious
cycle of power politics with army effectively calling shots in
decision making---beyond the ambit of the Constitution without an
oversight of a truly representative political government--- is at the
heart of lingering political and economic crises which is
contributing
to exacerbate terrorism. Much of the terrorism, could have been
contained long ago through
peaceful
means,
had
their been representatives federal and provincial government
with
a
clear strategic thinking, the very
absence of which, has
been
helping terrorists to grow their strength and lethal nature of
attacks over
the years.
Another critically contributing factor are thousands of cases of enforced disappearances in Baluchistan. The army and its intelligence network have been at the center of allegations to have illegally detained, tortured and killed people without any court trial, a lingering source of pubic outrage in Baluchistan.
Nearly 70% of its population is multi-dimensionally poor in Baluchistan because of lack of fair distribution of their resources. The most of nationalist parties, both Baluch and Pushtoon , have been struggling through peaceful means to have the democracy restored and resolve the crises peacefully. The army instead has given no letup to the excessive use of force which has been backfiring time and again. This has led to an aggravated political uncertainty which has created enormous negative optics among people against the army in Baluchistan and elsewhere in the country. This is helping terrorist groups to recruit more and more youngsters into their ranks and files keeping the pot of terrorism boiling.
Why
Can’t Baluchistan Become an Independent State
Baluchistan's
landmass is largely composed of mountains and deserts
and coastal lines. The province
make
up
44
percent
of Pakistan's total land mass.
Its population is
nearly 15 million which
is
scattered and makes up hardly
little
over six percent of
Pakistan's 241 million people. The Baluch population is estimated to
be around 52
percent
of the province, while Pashtuns are the second-largest group, making
up approximately 36
percent.
Baluch population does not present a united front against the
government, as they are deeply divided along political lines. The
rhetoric of Baluch terrorist groups advocating for an independent
Baluchistan is largely a popular slogan among a limited
and vocal
segment of the Baluch population not
shared by
larger
Baluch
fabric
of the society
and all other smaller
and major ethnic
groups oppose it.
The
vast territory provides a conducive environment for terrorist groups
to engage in hide-and-seek tactics, making it challenging for
Pakistan
military
to track them down. This means that terrorist groups can sustain
their insurgency for
long
if Pakistan's military continues to widen
fault lines and terrorists keep
on
getting
external support primarily
from India with alleged tacit backing of the US intelligence network.
However, these groups are unable to hold any particular territory for
long and remain vulnerable to being flushed out by a powerful state
machinery equipped with air power and technical intelligence.
Baluchistan's landmass is connected to the rest of Pakistan's three
provinces and
it
shares borders with Iran and Afghanistan. Neither do neighbouring
countries
have the capacity nor any intention to militarily intervene in
Baluchistan to fight a war with a nuclear-armed Pakistan to support
terrorist groups to
make Baluchistan an independent state. The situation is not akin to
1971 when India militarily intervened in the then East Pakistan (now
Bangladesh), which is 2,500 to 3,000 nautical kilometers from
Pakistan. The then East Pakistan was geographically sandwiched
between two parts of India, allowing India to militarily support the
mass uprising in East Pakistan and help Bengali insurgent groups to
declare independence. Baluchistan would remain in turmoil until the
military remains at the center stage of decision-making in Pakistan
and the US and India sustain their support to
terror groups
behind the scenes.
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